Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Brief: Jefferson County Alabama Declares Bankruptcy

A detailed discussion of the events leading up to this point can be found at this link. This will be the largest muni bankruptcy in US history.

Full Story

Updated to add: the County's Bankruptcy Lawyer Explains The Situation:


David Einhorn Was Right...

...at least for now (although for later is certainly quite the possibility, too.) Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) drops 24% (was down a bit over 30% earlier) after its earnings call this evening. Net sales for the period were far below expectations, at $711 million. Analysts polled by Bloomberg were looking for revenue of $760 million. Story

Greenlight Capital hedge fund manager David Einhorn's remarkably detailed (and amusingly titled) full 110-page report stating his short case on the Coffee company at the link below.

GAAP-uchino

Speaking of coffee, Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz's recent book, "Onward" is an excellent look at how the coffee retailer has approached business over the last few years.





A Look at Green Mountain's Production Process:

Jeffries: Not Convinced?

After a number of denials, detailed reports on European exposure and more (including main investor Leucadia adding a substantial amount to their existing investment), Jefferies is still down nearly 10% today. Given the events of the day in Europe and the recent situation with MF Global, it becomes an instance of - as discussed earlier - loss of confidence. Jefferies can provide another and another (and another) explanation of its holdings, but if the market doesn't buy it, it's sell first and ask questions later (which can become a negative feedback loop.)

The firm has offered presentations of its levels of European exposure (see here and for greater detail here) and kept updating investors (see here), but while the stock has rebounded from the sudden 20% loss a few days ago, the market still seems to be unconvinced.

Rating agency Eagan-Jones is not budging from its downgrade of the firm recently, as present Sean Eagan discussed (or, better yet, argued with the CNBC anchors who sensed they weren't getting the positive take they wanted) in the clip below. Eagan also provides an excellent discussion of the European situation.



Wynn Macau

Today's destination #2 is Macau, one two special administrative regions of the People's Republic of China.

Many are more than likely familiar with Wynn Resorts, run by legendary casino operator Steve Wynn. The stock, which is traded on the NYSE (WYNN) has enjoyed a remarkable rise in the last few years, currently at a little over $125 a share.

Wynn has operations in both Vegas (Wynn and Encore) as well as Macau (Wynn and Encore). The Wynn Macau offers 600 hotel rooms and suites, approximately 212 table games and 375 slot machines in approx 205,000 square feet (19,000 m2) of casino gaming space, five restaurants, 26,000 square feet of retail space and much more.

While Wynn's Vegas operations have rebounded reasonably well since the 2008 downturn, it's the Macau operations that are largely responsible for sending the stock soaring.

In terms of Wynn's recent earnings call:

For the Vegas operation:

For the third quarter ended September 30, 2011, net revenues for our Las Vegas operations were $346.9 million, 3.7% higher than in the third quarter of 2010.

For the Macau operation:

In the third quarter of 2011, net revenues were $951.4 million, a 41.7% increase from the $671.4 million generated in the third quarter of 2010.

The one area where Macau has not seen the same level of business is the non-gaming operations.

Gross non-casino revenues at Wynn Macau increased 32.4% during the quarter to $102.6 million, driven by strong performance from all non-casino segments.

Gross non-casino revenues for Wynn Las Vegas for the quarter were $265.9 million, an 11.1% increase from the third quarter of 2010, driven by higher revenues across all non-gaming segments.

While many think the current economic fundamentals will cause an erosion of the growth in Macau, the recent statistics continue to prove otherwise, as the stock has rebounded from a few sizable dips over the last year that have been brought on by such concerns. Regional growth and rising wages have also likely contributed to sustained business activity at Macau's casinos. Still, nothing grows to the sky, and while Macau will likely to continue to remain a tourist destination, the current growth rates are almost certainly not sustainable. For the meantime, however, casino operators continue to see growth that has continued to exceed expectations - and that could certainly continue over the longer-term, with some bumps in the short-term.

Speaking of "bumps", Wynn Macau - as well as other Macau casino stocks (such as Sands China) are extremely volatile, and not for the timid: they are exceptionally susceptible to any fears of a slowdown, especially in regards to VIP revenue. "About two-thirds of Macau’s gambling revenue is from high-roller VIPs, who play in specially designated rooms and bet with credit supplied by junket organizers." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/macau-casino-stocks-hit-by-vip-revenue-worry-2011-10-03?siteid=yhoof. Another issue with the casino stocks is Macau's regulations, which - understandably - are trying to place some limits on gambling in order to try to diversify Macau and attract a more widely varied tourist audience. This month, the government confirmed its stance that the number of gaming tables would be limited to 5,500 until 2013 - and the amount currently in operation is not much less than that. Macau has also encouraged companies to expand non-gaming operations. A massive bridge project linking Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau will also likely help increase tourism, although it is not expected to be complete until 2015-2016.

Wynn also is on track to open another casino in 2014-2015 in the Cotai district of Macau.

In terms of October, 2011:
"Gambling revenue in the Chinese territory rose to MOP26.85 billion (US$3.36 billion) in October, up from MOP18.87 billion in the same month a year earlier, data from Macau's Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau showed.

October's revenue haul beat the territory's previous high of MOP24.77 billion hit in August. It was boosted by China's "golden week" holidays, which fall in May and October. The former Portuguese colony, an hour from Hong Kong by ferry, is the only place in China in which casino gambling is legal, helping revenue there exceed that of neon rival Las Vegas fivefold. The October revenue figure of $3.4 billion is more than half of what Las Vegas is expected to make for the whole of 2011."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/01/uk-macau-revenue-idUSLNE7A002R20111101

All that said, while Wynn is at $125, some may not be aware that the Wynn Macau operation is listed separately on the Hong Kong market, with ADR and foreign ordinary shares available in the US. The US foreign ordinary shares are - at least as of 11/9/11, $2.86. As with other foreign stock posts on this blog, this is not an investment recommendation, but - in this case - an attempt to show how a foreign portion of a company's operations may be listed separately. There are other examples of this, which will be profiled in future entries.



US Stock: WYNMF (foreign ordinary), WYNMY (ADR)
Avg volume: 58,030 (3m/as of 11/9/11)
Hong Kong: 1128.HK
Avg volume: 11,998,000 (3m/as of 11/9/11)

Website: http://www.wynnresorts.com/

Recent Investor Presentation: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NDQwODA4fENoaWxkSUQ9NDYyNjQ1fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

New Book: Currency Wars

"Currency Wars", the new book from Jim Rickards, is now available. This is a terrific book on geopolitics and the current state of global finance. A full review will be posted later this week.

About the Author
James Rickards is a counselor, investment banker, and risk manager with over thirty years' experience in capital markets. He advises the Department of Defense, the U.S. intelligence community, and major hedge funds on global finance, and served as a facilitator of the first ever financial war games conducted by the Pentagon.





Rickards has also provided an excellent new audio interview on King World News this weekend.

Additionally, Rickards discussed the book and provided a short but quite interesting chat on the topic of global currency manipulation on CNBC this week.

Oil Heading Higher

Thanks a little bit to concerns about further bailouts and largely thanks to a decline in inventories, oil has headed higher mid-day to around $98 a barrel.

"the Energy Information Administration said crude inventories declined 1.4 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 4.

Gasoline inventories declined 2.1 million barrels, while distillates supplies were off 6 million barrels, the EIA said.

Analysts polled by Platts had expected crude oil stocks to rise 1 million barrels, gasoline stocks to decline 400,000 barrels, and distillates stocks to be down 2.5 million barrels."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-off-three-month-high-on-euro-zone-worries-2011-11-09?link=MW_latest_news

Certainly not good for consumers (may effect retail stocks) and many industries (airlines, for example), and it's more than a little concerning that oil looks to possibly head over the $100 barrier once again. Still, oil stocks largely not following: OIH (Oil Services ETF) down a little over 3.5%, while energy select SPDR (XLE) down 2.5%.

Oil and Gas Drilling Explanation Video:

Italian Bonds and Europe

Markets are riled up this morning thanks to Italian bonds passing beyond the 7% level, presenting considerable concerns about increased funding costs. Beyond that, a great deal of complex discussion can be made regarding the yields moving in a negative direction, but one can largely point towards a lack of confidence. In terms of financial markets, whether it be a stock or a sovereign nation, once investor confidence is lost, it's quite difficult to regain. Making the situation even worse is the potential domino effect that looms in Europe in regards to financial stability of Italy, Greece and the other PIIGS. Beyond that, the other layer continues to be worries about who has exposure to what as financial companies continue to defend, deny or otherwise debate their exposure to Europe (see Jefferies/JEF, which saw a spectacular decline mid-day a couple of days ago of 20%, only to rebound after the company offered a detailed discussion of what exposure it has.)

While the ECB can come up with any number of complex plans (rumors work pretty well, too, including the now-familiar rumor that China will run to Europe's rescue, which is often denied within hours), such as the EFSF http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Financial_Stability_Facility, the underlying arithmetic can't be argued with and all of the interventions (such as the reported ECB intervention this morning) simply result in a bigger bill when the can can't be kicked down the road further or another crisis if the path of interventions and bailouts continues to be followed. Italy's debt burden is currently an astonishing 1.9T Euros.

Sadly, while Europe is facing a financial downpour, areas are also facing a literal one, as torrential rain is causing flooding in France and Italy.



European Parliament member Nigel Farage offers an excellent discussion of the current situation in an audio interview today at King World News.

Euro now heading lower, as well. Double short Euro ETN chart below.


links:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/09/us-markets-global-idUSTRE79N45620111109?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=71


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204358004577027492657312740.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

SMRT

The blog's first post travels to Singapore. This is not a recommendation to invest in this company, but simply a desire to highlight the kind of interesting investments available in various parts of the globe.

SMRT, obviously not to be confused with the "Simpsons" reference...




...is a sleek, modern transit system that serves Singapore, providing bus, train (both larger MRT Mass Rapid Transit and LRT Light Rail) and taxi service. Going beyond transit, the company also brings in revenue from renting advertising space, engineering consultancy (including efforts in other Asian territories and the Middle East, as well as Brazil), renting commercial space (retail space within stations, for example, and more stations are being renovated with a benefit being increased rental space) and more. The structure of the corporation can be seen at this link. Assets under the corporation stand at 1.6B (in Singapore Dollars) and Singapore's sovereign wealth fund (Temasek) owns a bit over 54%.

Rarely does one see transit infrastructure available for investment in the United States, but investing in airports and other such significant transit in a growing economy is an interesting proposition. Full year total ridership in FY2006 was 413.8M and FY2010 was 536M. The company does a remarkable job trying to maintain a high standard of performance against its benchmarks, set by the Land Transit Authority. One particular benchmark - at least 94% within 2 minutes of schedule weekly - saw the company achieve a success rate of a little over 97%.

Benchmarks:



at least 94% of trains arrive within 2 minutes of schedule;

at least 96% of trains depart within 2 minutes of schedule;

train service availability will be at least 98%;

downtime of not more than 500 hours per 10,000 hours of operation for general ticketing machines;

downtime of not more than 500 hours per 10,000 hours of operation for ticket gates;

downtime of not more than 200 hours per 10,000 hours of operation for lifts; and

downtime of not more than 100 hours per 10,000 hours of operation for escalators.

Eventually, ridership growth will slow, but given the company's plans, that may not happen any time soon. A number of new lines that extend the train system further outward are planned, with timelines out to 2020. The Singapore Government has announced plans to spend $60B (S$) to expand the rail network over the next decade. Even if growth does slow, the essential need of the "product" - getting people from here-to-there - will likely give the stock some degree of stability over time. SMRT's dividend policy is to attempt to maintain or grow the dividend yearly, and possibly offer special dividends in an attempt to increase shareholder value.

Fares will also likely increase, although the issue becomes that the area's transit operators (see also ComfortDelGro) have to seek approval from the Public Transport Counsel. Negatives include higher energy costs and expenses, which did eat into the bottom line recently. The requirement of having to request the ability to raise fares from a government organization is also restrictive. The company did present in their recent quarter some definite concerns about FY2012 - while ridership is expected to likely continue higher, if fuel costs do stay high, that will continue to pose a definite problem for the company's bottom line.

Still, the company continues to be progressive, not only by expanding its modern fleet, but by increasing the capacity to advertise - not only in the traditional sense, but with innovative digital advertising (projection, digital screens, video walls.) That said, even the traditional advertising is tastefully, cleanly presented and attractive (see page 34 of the company's recent Investor Presentation. Advertising and rental revenue did increase nicely year/over/year in 2011 - ad revenue up 12.6%, rental revenue up 13.1%. The company's transit cards are also certainly quite modern - passengers use contactless smart cards.

Speaking of clean, photos and video of the trains and stations do make them look crisp and clean, and the reason for that may be in part due to the fine for eating and drinking. No food or drink may be consumed on the trains or in stations. Doing so can result in a $500 fine.

The company does face some issues - primarily rising costs (especially rising fuel costs), but is an interesting example of the kind of transit infrastructure that can be invested in in some overseas markets.

SMRT video overview:


Note: How cool is the electronic map at 1:25, showing next stop?



US Trading?: Yes

Symbol: SPMRY (ADR share)

Trades in US: Rarely ever. Very, very illiquid.

Latest Investor Presentation: http://www.smrt.com.sg/investors/documents/presentations/DB_Conference_Investor_presentation_1QFY12.pdf

Website: http://www.smrt.com.sg/

Foreign Symbol: Singapore (S53.si)

Trades in Singapore: 771,161 (3mo avg vol as of 11/9/11)